fig 6
This image from a previous post shows the number of users who have chosen to follow British political party accounts on Twitter. As observed in the earlier post, there as been a large increase (around 60%) in users following @libdems since the election was called.
What would happen if come Thursday parties received the support in the proportions they are followed on Twitter?
Taking the number of followers, it shows a proportionally higher support for ‘other’ parties than either current polls or in the 2005 election. However, the BBC Election Seat Calculator shows the result which might be produced by these levels of support (% as a proportion of total support):
This is a different result from the current polls – Interestingly taking a proportional approach to followers, there is an increase in the representation of ‘other’ parties. However, the ‘other’ parties and @Libdems specifically fair little better in terms of seats despite their respective increase in ‘support’. This is due to the structural quirks of the UK voting system. Even with a 3% advantage over Labour (which they do in followers) would still be over 100 seats behind.
As users on Twitter can follow more than one party, just comparing the numbers of followers gives a distorted view. The network image above shows various clusters of individuals following a number of parties. If numbers are adjusted to take account of this and the lower tendency to vote for ‘other’ parties within a first past the post system, the following result in produced:
It seems the level of support might be slightly higher / lower for Conservative and Labour respectively – perhaps due to demographics of Twitter users. There is also no control for geographic location, nor weighting on the propensity to vote.
Mind you, some pollsters have found as many as 10% of voters report making their decision / change their mind in the voting booth. Also the recent ICM Poll showing % voting intention for May 6th, was derived from 786 respondents. For its other limitations, this view came from the actions of over 61,000 people.
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